{"id":671,"date":"2016-12-27T09:34:26","date_gmt":"2016-12-27T17:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/?p=671"},"modified":"2023-07-18T19:11:53","modified_gmt":"2023-07-18T19:11:53","slug":"fed-rate-hike-to-crash-the-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/fed-rate-hike-to-crash-the-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Rate Hike to Crash the Stock Market?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5><a href=\"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-672 alignleft lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-198x300.jpg\" alt=\"SONY DSC\" width=\"198\" height=\"300\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-198x300.jpg 198w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-675x1024.jpg 675w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-768x1165.jpg 768w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-1012x1536.jpg 1012w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-1350x2048.jpg 1350w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-600x910.jpg 600w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-scaled.jpg 1687w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 198px) 100vw, 198px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 198px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 198\/300;\" \/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-672 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-198x300.jpg\" alt=\"SONY DSC\" width=\"198\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-198x300.jpg 198w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-675x1024.jpg 675w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-768x1165.jpg 768w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-1012x1536.jpg 1012w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-1350x2048.jpg 1350w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-600x910.jpg 600w, https:\/\/udirectira.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Kathy_Fettke_HS_7-scaled.jpg 1687w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 198px) 100vw, 198px\" \/><\/noscript><\/a>by Guest Contributor Kathy Fettke:\u00a0 Co-CEO, Real Wealth Network, Host of the <a href=\"https:\/\/realwealth.com\/real-wealth-show-podcast\/\">Real Wealth Show<\/a> and author of Retire Rich with Rentals<\/h5>\n<p>The Federal Reserve finally raised rates for the first time this year at their December meeting, and suggested there could be three more rate hikes next year. There\u2019s lots of varied opinions about what this could mean for real estate, so let\u2019s tackle it!<\/p>\n<p>After threatening to do so for several months now, the central bank finally raised the key interest rate another quarter percent by unanimous vote. The overnight lending rate between banks is now up to a half-percent from a quarter percent.<\/p>\n<p>This marks the first rate hike in 2016, even though the Fed announced last December that it would raise rates four times this year.<\/p>\n<h5>Why did it take so long?<\/h5>\n<p>The Fed raises rates to slow down a booming economy and fend off inflation. Raising rates when the economy has not been booming is risky.<\/p>\n<p>Last December is a perfect example of this. That was the last time the Fed raised rates, and only by a meager .25%, after nearly a decade of near-zero rates. Just a few weeks later, the stock market took a massive hit.<\/p>\n<p>I was invited on Neil Cavuto\u2019s \u201cYour World\u201d on Fox News in New York City last December to share my insights on how the higher rates would affect real estate.<\/p>\n<p>I told Neil that a Fed rate hike would not drive mortgage rates up because the Fed Fund rate is not directly related to mortgage rates. Instead, I predicted that mortgage rates would actually decline because a Fed rate hike could be the prick the pops the stock market bubble. And that\u2019s exactly what happened.<\/p>\n<h5>Will that happen again this January?<\/h5>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to predict nearly anything these days because the market is so manipulated by the Fed. Ten years of near zero interest rates and trillions of dollars of quantitative easing has certainly fueled the economy, but not in a healthy way.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s like the feeling you have when your house goes up in value so you go the the bank and get an equity line. Suddenly you feel rich! You have lots of cash to spend, but fail to realize it was borrowed and has to be paid back someday. If you borrowed the money at 0% interest, and then suddenly the interest rates increase, it could be even harder to pay it back.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the situation corporations face today. Many borrowed cheap money to buy back their own stocks, but even a quarter percent rate hike can affect profits, which spooks stock market investors.<\/p>\n<p>President-elect Donald Trump admitted several times on the campaign trail that the economy was sluggish and that the stock market was inflated. How can the stock market be inflated if the economy is stalling? Simple \u2013 fake money fueled it, not genuine economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s why it\u2019s frightening to see how an already inflated stock market could be on such a tear \u2013 reaching record new heights \u2013 simply as a result of the election. Investors turned bullish immediately after Trump\u2019s victory, and have been frenzied ever since \u2013 basing their optimism on the new administration\u2019s plans for tax cuts, fewer regulations and increased infrastructure spending.<\/p>\n<p>All this excitement will end when reality sets in, and people realize that our problems have not disappeared just because a new President has made some Reagan-esque promises. Things don\u2019t move quickly on Capitol Hill, even with a Republican Congress. Besides, the Reagan era faced very different issues than we have today so using the same methods may not work.<\/p>\n<h5>So let\u2019s get back to real estate.<\/h5>\n<p>The Fed raises rates if the economy is growing too quickly and needs to put on the brakes in order to curb inflation. That is definitely not the case today. Our economy is struggling to fight deflation, not inflation. That\u2019s why trillions of dollars have been pumped into the money supply through quantitative easing just to keep it propped up. There would be no need for such massive stimulus if we were fighting inflation.<\/p>\n<p>When the Fed raises rates in a weak economy as it just did, it most likely will slow down in an already slow economy \u2013 and then we\u2019d soon see a repeat of last year\u2019s stock market collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Optimism over Trump\u2019s inauguration on January 21st could keep Wall Street investors pumped up for a bit longer than it did last year. But when reality hits, everything could reverse, and reverse quickly! When it does, investors will likely jump back into the safety of bonds \u2013 just as they did last year. That would reduce mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>Chief economist of The National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun said that the era of ultra-low interest rates is over. But he also added that despite the current rate hike and any rate hike\u2019s next year, \u201cmortgage rates will not rise alarmingly.\u201d Curt Long at NAFCU said: \u201cThe impact of a quarter point rate hike on U.S. households should be minimal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Right now, the euphoria on Wall Street has investors dumping bonds and jumping into stocks, which has driven bond yields up. Mortgage backed securities, which are closely tied to bond yields, also increased. That\u2019s why mortgage rates bumped up from an average 3.47 percent in late October to 4.16 percent at the beginning of December \u2013 a little more than two-thirds of a percent!<\/p>\n<h5>What does this mean for real estate investors?<\/h5>\n<p>If you have an adjustable rate mortgage, you could see your rates tick up slightly.<\/p>\n<p>If you are trying to qualify for a loan, your payment will be slightly higher.<\/p>\n<p>If you have a fixed-rate loan, you won\u2019t notice a thing.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re a flipper, you may have a bit more trouble getting your buyer qualified for a loan &#8211; at least until rates decline again.<\/p>\n<p>Redfin says the average monthly payment on a $268,000 home with a 20-percent down payment and a 3.47-percent interest rate would be $1,280. If you raise that rate to 4.16 percent, the monthly payment jumps $86 a month.<\/p>\n<p>Yun is predicting that by this time next year, the 30-year fixed rate would be in the 4.5 to 5-percent range.\u201d Redfin is forecasting a slightly lower rate of 4.3 percent. I\u2019m predicting less than that \u2013 below 4%.<\/p>\n<p>Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson explains that mortgage rates will remain low because the Federal Reserve plans to continue investing in mortgage securities. It began doing that in the aftermath of the housing crisis, as part of its quantitative easing strategy. She says those mortgage securities provide a constant supply of credit for lenders and that will keep mortgage rates low.<\/p>\n<p>She says: \u201cAs long as the Fed remains a trillion dollar investor in the U.S. mortgage system, a moderate pickup in short-term rates won\u2019t unhinge historically low long-term rates like mortgage rates, and won\u2019t dampen the strong home-buying demand we\u2019ve seen as a result of the strengthening economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Historically speaking, rates are still extremely low. When I started buying real estate, rates were in the 9% range. Back in the 80\u2019s, they were above 15 percent!<\/p>\n<h5>Bottomline:<\/h5>\n<p>1- Interest rates are not likely to soar anytime soon so don\u2019t worry about it affecting real estate values, except in certain markets that are already unaffordable.\u00a0Also, it&#8217;s important to be aware of which markets are affected by stock market fluctuations.<\/p>\n<p>2- If you find a property that makes sense with today\u2019s rates, lock it up. That way if rates increase, you\u2019re set. If rates decrease, you can refinance.<\/p>\n<p>3 &#8211; If you are still invested in the stock market, this could be a great time to self-direct your IRA so that you can invest in assets that don\u2019t disappear overnight.<\/p>\n<p>~Author Kathy Fettke is Co-CEO, <a href=\"https:\/\/realwealth.com\/\">Real Wealth Network<\/a>, Host of the Real Wealth Show and author of &#8220;Retire Rich with Rentals&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Guest Contributor Kathy Fettke:\u00a0 Co-CEO, Real Wealth Network, Host of the Real Wealth Show and author of Retire Rich with Rentals The Federal Reserve finally raised rates for the first time this year at their December meeting, and suggested there could be three more rate hikes next year. There\u2019s lots of varied opinions about&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fed Rate Hike to Crash the Stock Market? - uDirect IRA Services, LLC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve finally raised rates for the first time this year at their December meeting, and suggested there could be three more rate hikes next year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/udirectira.com\/fed-rate-hike-to-crash-the-stock-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed Rate Hike to Crash the Stock Market? 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